Hard Drive Shortage: Where Did They All Go?

Over the past few years, the 3.5" hard drive market has experienced a rollercoaster ride. If you've recently tried to purchase a LaCie or SanDisk drive and found them out of stock, you're not alone. But what's behind this shortage? And more importantly, what can you do to avoid being affected?

Looking back: COVID and the rush for storage

During the pandemic lockdowns, remote work became the norm. As a result, demand for hard drives surged dramatically. Both individuals and businesses anticipated shortages and stockpiled drives. This overconsumption led manufacturers to ramp up production—only to cut it back just as quickly when demand collapsed. Some factories even shut down to remain profitable. Globally, hard drive revenues dropped by around 30% in 2023, according to Gartner.^{1 2} 

The AI era: a new hunger for storage

Now, a new giant has entered the scene: artificial intelligence. AI models generate and consume astronomical amounts of data—text, images, videos—that need to be stored somewhere. And that “somewhere” is often internal hard drives, frequently the same ones used in consumer products. Unlike traditional practices where storage space is reused, companies training AI models typically retain this data on hard drives rather than deleting it after training.

Industry giants like Seagate and Western Digital saw their revenues climb by 30% last quarter, with shipments up 45% for Seagate and 32% for Western Digital. Gartner forecasts that global hard drive revenues will reach $24 billion USD in 2026—double that of 2023.^{1 2}

What this means for you

The market is rebalancing, but it has changed. Manufacturers are now signing long-term supply contracts with large companies, which limits the flexibility of available stock for distributors and end customers.

To support efficient production, it’s now essential for distributors to accurately anticipate their needs for the coming year. As a reseller, we must work closely with you—our customers—and our distribution partners to establish clear forecasts that will allow manufacturers to allocate the necessary resources and ensure product availability.

Plan ahead to avoid shortages

If you know you’ll need hard drives in the coming months, order them as soon as possible. This will allow us to secure stock from manufacturers and guarantee the availability of the models you’re looking for.